Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 79%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 9, 24, 2:13 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 6:11 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill AI-generated content be banned or clearly labeled by at least one major social platform (Meta, X, TikTok,YouTube)?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 500 million views on YouTube before January 1st 2027
- Different number of views:
- @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-dffa37ad4ea8
- @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-3d03ea841919
- @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-8ece29d7032e
- @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-f31c516403e4
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2027? resolve?
- Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 500 million views on YouTube before January 1st 2027