Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 65.2%
Forecasters
44
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 5, 24, 12:58 AM UTCJan 6, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill AI-generated content be banned or clearly labeled by at least one major social platform (Meta, X, TikTok,YouTube)?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 1 billion views on YouTube before January 1st 2027
- Different number of views:
- @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-dffa37ad4ea8
- @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-3d03ea841919
- @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-8ece29d7032e
- @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-f31c516403e4
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027? resolve?
- Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 6, 2027.
- How is Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 1 billion views on YouTube before January 1st 2027