Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.3%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 45 minutes ago
LaggingJul 26, 26, 6:29 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will I be able to order food online and have the delivery agent directly feed it to me on my couch?
Manifold MarketsWill Michael Saylor be convicted of a crime in the follow years?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029
Manifold MarketsWill it be revealed that someone in the US was falsely convicted of a crime due to an AI generated video by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic release a personal AI agent?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, before January 1, 2030, an artificial intelligence (AI) agent or autonomous software algorithm is directly convicted of a criminal offense in a recognized court of law.
- For a YES resolution, the following conditions must be met:
- The AI agent itself must be formally named as a defendant in a criminal case and found guilty or convicted by a court (local, national, federal, or international).
- The legal system must treat the AI agent itself as the criminally liable party, rather than attributing the liability to a human developer, user, or corporate owner.
- The market will resolve to NO under any of the following circumstances:
