Current community forecast
AGI 76.6%
Forecasters
32
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+22.4 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleTrends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will commercial nuclear fusion exist in April of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]
Manifold MarketsWhen will nuclear fusion be achieved?
KalshiWill Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWhen will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
KalshiRules
Resolves when either the named outcome reaches 1% of electricity globally, or when artificial general intelligence is reached.
- If none of these ever get achieved by humanity, this never resolves.
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.6%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.5M
- 24h Vol
- $100.2K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-11.0pt50%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $262.3K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Anthropic market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first??
- Manifold Markets prices AGI at 77% as of September 20, 2026.
- How is Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves when either the named outcome reaches 1% of electricity globally, or when artificial general intelligence is reached.