Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?
EuropeOne-OffHealth & Medicine1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.6%
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69
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 34 minutes ago
May 7, 26, 1:49 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Andes virus is a member of the hantavirus family responsible for the MV Hondius cruise ship outbreak.
- The only vaccine against hantaviruses in use is Hantavax which targets Hantaan river virus and Seoul virus, both "old world" hantaviruses, causing different symptoms than "new world" hantaviruses like the Andes virus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hantavirus_vaccine)
- Moderna has been working on mRNA hantavirus vaccine, though this seems to target old world hantaviruses as well:
- https://brusselssignal.eu/2026/05/korea-university-and-moderna-have-been-working-on-mrna-hantavirus-vaccine-since-2023/
- Resolves YES if any officially sanctioned vaccine trial in humans occurs before close date, where:
- the vaccine has preclinical data suggesting possible efficacy against Andes virus
