Will a US House seat flip from Republican to Democrat in a 2027 special election?
One-OffUS PoliticsElectionPolitics1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.7%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 21, 26, 5:42 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves YES if a special election for a US House seat is completed in 2027 and the winner is a Democrat, where the seat's vacating member was a Republican (see definitions).
- When an election counts as "in 2027":
- - The election that actually fills the seat must take place between January 1 and December 31, 2027 (inclusive).
- - This can be a special general election, a runoff, or a special primary or all-party first round in which one candidate wins outright by majority and so fills the seat.
- - A special election whose primary or first round is in 2027 but which needs a general election or runoff in 2028 does not count.
- - The vacancy may have arisen at any time, including before 2027.
