Will a scientific discovery extend human lifespan by more than 10 years within the next 20 years?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will a scientific discovery extend human lifespan by more than 10 years within the next 20 years??

Manifold Markets prices No at 61.7% as of November 1, 2026.

When does Will a scientific discovery extend human lifespan by more than 10 years within the next 20 years? resolve?

Will a scientific discovery extend human lifespan by more than 10 years within the next 20 years? is scheduled to resolve on December 22, 2044.

How is Will a scientific discovery extend human lifespan by more than 10 years within the next 20 years? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Update 2026-10-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified a potential path to resolution:

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POLYMARKET

New pandemic in 2026?

• No+0.8pt98%
• Yes-0.8pt2%

Total Vol

$1.3M

24h Vol

$12K

POLYMARKET

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

• No+0.4pt98%
• Yes-0.4pt2%

Total Vol

$18.9M

24h Vol

$8.8K

POLYMARKET

How many US births in 2026?

• 3.56M–3.59M+12.0pt39.5%
• 3.53M–3.56M+2.0pt27.5%
• 3.59M–3.62M-2.5pt12.8%

+4 more outcomes

KALSHI

Pandemic in 2026?

• No95.5%
• Yes+1.0pt4.5%

Total Vol

$1M

24h Vol

$4.6K

POLYMARKET

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

• ↑5k+0.1pt99%
• ↑5.5k+0.5pt96%
• ↑6k+0.5pt88%

+13 more outcomes

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

• Before Jan 1, 202989.5%
• Before Jul 1, 202884.5%
• Before Jan 1, 202855.5%

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• FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
• Measles cases in U.S. by November 30?