Current community forecast
No 73%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleOct 23, 25, 12:00 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketRules
[image]Resolution Criteria
- Resolves YES if a model from a Chinese labs is listed at the top of the text leaderboard according to the Default sort at any point from now (Oct 23 2025) until EOY 2026.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026? resolve?
- Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: [image]Resolution Criteria