Current community forecast
No 77.7%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 23, 25, 12:00 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
PolymarketBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketTrump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
PolymarketRules
[image]Resolution Criteria
- Resolves YES if a model from a Chinese labs is listed at the top of the text leaderboard according to the Default sort at any point from now (Oct 23 2025) until EOY 2026.
