What are the current odds for Which US Presidents will live to see AGI??

Manifold Markets prices Barack Obama at 73.9% as of October 24, 2026.

When does Which US Presidents will live to see AGI? resolve?

Which US Presidents will live to see AGI? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2051.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Barack Obama 73.9%

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 8 hours ago

Stale

Nov 17, 24, 10:36 AM UTCJan 1, 51, 5:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

All listed who are alive when an artificial general intelligence (AGI) is created will resolve YES.

Any who die before this time will resolve NO.
Whether AGI has been reached will depend on this market.
So, there must be proof of an AI passing the Turing test for any living president in this market to resolve YES.
If any new president is elected before AGI, their name will be added to this market.