Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Children of Blood and Bone 100%Leader of 39 outcomes
Forecasters
38
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jan 6, 24, 3:08 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
The criteria here are somewhat subjective - I will make the final determination so I will not bet.
- Some important considerations will be:
- Does the movie/series have the same title as the book or the series of books to which the book belongs?
- Are most of the major characters named the same?
- Is the plot roughly the same?
- Sometimes plots are changed / characters are combined in the adaptation process, but that alone isn't enough to make something "not an adaption"
Open markets
AI
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- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
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- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
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- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which SciFi/Fantasy books will be adapted into movies or TV series by the end of the 2020s??
- Manifold Markets prices Children of Blood and Bone at 100% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which SciFi/Fantasy books will be adapted into movies or TV series by the end of the 2020s? resolve?
- Which SciFi/Fantasy books will be adapted into movies or TV series by the end of the 2020s? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Which SciFi/Fantasy books will be adapted into movies or TV series by the end of the 2020s? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The criteria here are somewhat subjective - I will make the final determination so I will not bet.