Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastA model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools) 100%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 16, 25, 3:09 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 3:46 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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A new highly-detailed operationalization of AGI has been proposed by Hendrycks et al. based on the standard that "AGI is an AI that can match or exceed the cognitive versatility and proficiency of a well-educated adult" (www.agidefinition.ai/).
- Their definition is inspired by Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory and calculate a model’s “AGI Score” as a composite of ten equally-weighted cognitive categories.
- GPT-4 is judged to score 27% according to the definition, and GPT-5 is scored at 58%.
- This market resolves YES for each event which occurs BEFORE the first date when an AI system, with an AGI Score eventually judged to be above 95%, is deployed and accessible to customers external to the AI developer for commercial or consumer purposes.
- The AGI Score would either need to be judged by the authors, or by a third party in a manner credibly commensurate with the original evaluations of GPT-4 and GPT-5.
- The score would need to be announced within 6 months of model release.
