Current community forecast
United States of America 52.7%Leader of 20 outcomes
Forecasters
84
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 10, 24, 10:07 AM UTCOct 31, 32, 6:29 PM UTC
Trends
0.3%
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0.2%
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0.1%
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Artemis III flown with a crewed landing? x Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsOn which year will China first land a person on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsTrump Space Academy begins training by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRules
If there's a mission with more than 1 person from more than 1 country, the market will consider which of them first step on the surface of our moon.
- If that person holds multiple countries' citizenship, then it resolves to whatever country's space organization sent that person.
- If even that is ambiguous, in case of a joint/collaborative effort, then it resolves to the birth country of that person.
- By landing, it is meant that the person is alive after landing.
- It will not count if there's an explosion upon touchdown and the person dies, for example.
- It does not have to be a perfect landing.
Open markets
SpaceLIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No81%
- Yes19%
- Total Vol
- $358.3K
- 24h Vol
- $330K
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.1pt97%
- Google-0.9pt2%
- OpenAI-0.1pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.3M
- 24h Vol
- $51.5K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-1.0pt64%
- Before May 1, 2027+1.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 202744%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+4.3pt50.5%
- SpaceX-4.5pt48.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt1%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202754.1%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt43.4%
- 2026+0.8pt2.5%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic+2.5pt85.2%
- Google-2.0pt6.9%
- OpenAI-1.7pt5.9%
+18 more outcomes
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of October?
- SpaceX Starship 14th launch?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which country would land the next person on the moon??
- Manifold Markets prices United States of America at 53% as of September 13, 2026.
- When does Which country would land the next person on the moon? resolve?
- Which country would land the next person on the moon? is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2032.
- How is Which country would land the next person on the moon? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If there's a mission with more than 1 person from more than 1 country, the market will consider which of them first step on the surface of our moon.