Current community forecast
United States of America 53.7%Leader of 20 outcomes
United States of America 53.7%Forecasters
84
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 10, 24, 10:07 AM UTCOct 31, 32, 6:29 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
On which year will China first land a person on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsArtemis III flown with a crewed landing? x Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill NASA land a person on the moon before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran and Oman announce a permanent Hormuz shipping scheme by October 31?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump nationalize SpaceX?
KalshiRules
If there's a mission with more than 1 person from more than 1 country, the market will consider which of them first step on the surface of our moon.
- If that person holds multiple countries' citizenship, then it resolves to whatever country's space organization sent that person.
- If even that is ambiguous, in case of a joint/collaborative effort, then it resolves to the birth country of that person.
- By landing, it is meant that the person is alive after landing.
- It will not count if there's an explosion upon touchdown and the person dies, for example.
- It does not have to be a perfect landing.
