What are the current odds for Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon??

Manifold Markets prices No at 60% as of September 14, 2026.

Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?

One-OffSpace China8y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 60%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

May 29, 23, 2:06 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 3:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Artemis III flown with a crewed landing? x Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?

Manifold Markets

Trump Wins 2024 Presidential Election x China Lands a Person on the Moon before the US Can Return to the Moon

Manifold Markets

On which year will China first land a person on the Moon?

Manifold Markets

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Polymarket

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Polymarket

Which country would land the next person on the moon?

Manifold Markets

Rules

Basically who is first to the moon excluding the Apollo landings.

Report a data issue with this market

Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?

One-OffSpace China8y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 60%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

May 29, 23, 2:06 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 3:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Artemis III flown with a crewed landing? x Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?

Manifold Markets

Trump Wins 2024 Presidential Election x China Lands a Person on the Moon before the US Can Return to the Moon

Manifold Markets

On which year will China first land a person on the Moon?

Manifold Markets

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Polymarket

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Polymarket

Which country would land the next person on the moon?

Manifold Markets

Rules

Basically who is first to the moon excluding the Apollo landings.

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon??: Manifold Markets prices No at 60% as of September 14, 2026.
When does Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon? resolve?: Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.
How is Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Basically who is first to the moon excluding the Apollo landings.

Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?

Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?

Frequently asked questions

Open markets

SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?

Which company has the best AI model end of October?