Current community forecast
In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 100%Leader of 7 outcomes
In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 100%Forecasters
33
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleOct 28, 24, 2:20 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich publicly traded US companies will do a purely-LLM-performance-based layoff in 2026?
Manifold MarketsExit valuation of Spine AI (YC S23)?
Manifold MarketsWill Waymo and Uber die due to Tesla Robotaxi Service by 2028
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Based on https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/
- [link preview]I substituted quarters for the vague "early", "mid", "late" phrasing and gave each prediction at least a six-month window.
- All options refer to the first time a given milestone happens after market creation.
- Too early = NO.
- Added clarifications:
- Starship second stage landing on land: Should be a soft landing/catch where it stays upright and doesn't immediately explode.
