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Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

ChainlinkOne-OffSpace AI Tech Politics2y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 19, 2026, 4:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 100%

Leader of 7 outcomes

Forecasters

32

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Stale

Oct 28, 24, 2:20 PMJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

100%

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

0%

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

0%

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 202610%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Based on https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/

[link preview]I substituted quarters for the vague "early", "mid", "late" phrasing and gave each prediction at least a six-month window.
All options refer to the first time a given milestone happens after market creation.
Too early = NO.
Added clarifications:
Starship second stage landing on land: Should be a soft landing/catch where it stays upright and doesn't immediately explode.

Volume trend

$750

Jul 164d of dataJul 19

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Rules

Based on https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/

[link preview]I substituted quarters for the vague "early", "mid", "late" phrasing and gave each prediction at least a six-month window.
All options refer to the first time a given milestone happens after market creation.
Too early = NO.
Added clarifications:
Starship second stage landing on land: Should be a soft landing/catch where it stays upright and doesn't immediately explode.