Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 44.3%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleNov 5, 25, 9:57 PM UTCNov 5, 26, 9:56 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman still be CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsSam Altman still CEO of OpenAI through the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsSam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiRules
Simple renaming: A straightforward renaming of the organization will count as OpenAI.
- Mild restructure with renaming: If the rebranding is accompanied by only a mild restructuring, it almost certainly counts as OpenAI.
- Large restructure: If the organization undergoes a significant restructure that leads to substantial or widespread disagreement about what constitutes "OpenAI," this could cause the market to resolve as NO even if Sam Altman remains CEO.
- Temporary Leave doesn't count.
- Only permanent exit from the CEO position counts.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Sam Altman cease to be the CEO of OpenAI??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 44% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Sam Altman cease to be the CEO of OpenAI? resolve?
- When will Sam Altman cease to be the CEO of OpenAI? is scheduled to resolve on November 5, 2026.
- How is When will Sam Altman cease to be the CEO of OpenAI? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Simple renaming: A straightforward renaming of the organization will count as OpenAI.