Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastOther 45.3%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleNov 5, 25, 9:57 PM UTCNov 5, 26, 9:56 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Sam Altman cease to be CEO of OpenAI before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman cease to be CEO of OpenAI again before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman still be CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2026?
Manifold Markets7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.
Manifold MarketsSam Altman still CEO of OpenAI through the end of 2026?
FutuurSam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
KalshiRules
Simple renaming: A straightforward renaming of the organization will count as OpenAI.
- Mild restructure with renaming: If the rebranding is accompanied by only a mild restructuring, it almost certainly counts as OpenAI.
- Large restructure: If the organization undergoes a significant restructure that leads to substantial or widespread disagreement about what constitutes "OpenAI," this could cause the market to resolve as NO even if Sam Altman remains CEO.
- Temporary Leave doesn't count.
- Only permanent exit from the CEO position counts.
