When will it be possible to spend $10 million or less to edit your genes to require less sleep?
InflationOne-OffRegulationHealth & MedicineCrime & JusticeManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2048-2054 15%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleAug 12, 26, 12:16 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the date on which a gene-editing therapy designed to safely and permanently reduce human sleep requirements becomes commercially or clinically available to consumers for a total cost of $10 million USD or less (including the therapeutic agents and the required medical procedure).
- To satisfy the resolution criteria, the therapy must meet the following conditions:
- Target Mechanism: The therapy must target genetic pathways scientifically associated with sleep duration or sleep efficiency (such as DEC2, ADRB1, NPSR1, GRM1, or equivalent sleep-regulating genes).
- Availability: The treatment must be legally accessible to paying patients, either via approval from a major regulatory body (e.g., the US FDA or EMA) or through a verified, legally operating commercial clinic (including medical tourism).
- Cost: The total retail or out-of-pocket price for a single patient must be publicly documented as $10 million USD or less (adjusted for inflation from 2026).
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $662.8K
- 24h Vol
- $55.1K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.9K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $21.3K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will it be possible to spend $10 million or less to edit your genes to require less sleep??
- Manifold Markets prices 2048-2054 at 15% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will it be possible to spend $10 million or less to edit your genes to require less sleep? resolve?
- When will it be possible to spend $10 million or less to edit your genes to require less sleep? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.
- How is When will it be possible to spend $10 million or less to edit your genes to require less sleep? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria