Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 41.9%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleAug 9, 26, 2:56 AM UTCJan 1, 35, 3:53 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump die while in Secret Service custody?
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PolymarketWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiWill Donald Trump issue a public apology?
KalshiRules
Resolves to year Donald Trump dies.
- He will be 87 in 2033, so Other is 88 or older at the time of this market creation.
Open markets
US PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
- $689.3K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.6pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.2M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+4.0pt99%
- $25M+3.5pt96%
- $50M+4.5pt91%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.4pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $256.3K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $249.6K
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Donald Trump die??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 42% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Donald Trump die? resolve?
- When will Donald Trump die? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.
- How is When will Donald Trump die? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to year Donald Trump dies.