Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2026 47.4%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 11, 24, 1:34 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Multi year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
The resolve year will be the year I started noticing a majority of the comments in the market argue that AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion.
- I will try my best to be impartial, and I will use my judgement.
- (edit: once I started noticing a majority of the comments in the market argue that AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion, I will conduct a poll on Manifold asking if AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion, and resolve Yes to the year if the poll has more vote on Yes than No)
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold??
- Manifold Markets prices 2026 at 47% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold? resolve?
- When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The resolve year will be the year I started noticing a majority of the comments in the market argue that AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion.