Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
2026 43.8%Leader of 8 outcomes
2026 43.8%Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+3.8 pts
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleJan 11, 24, 1:34 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
The resolve year will be the year I started noticing a majority of the comments in the market argue that AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion.
- I will try my best to be impartial, and I will use my judgement.
- (edit: once I started noticing a majority of the comments in the market argue that AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion, I will conduct a poll on Manifold asking if AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion, and resolve Yes to the year if the poll has more vote on Yes than No)
