Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2028 41.8%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleApr 17, 25, 1:39 PM UTCDec 5, 40, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a self-identifying atheist be elected president of the United States by 2040?
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Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before 2045?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to the earliest year in which a Republican candidate is elected President of the United States after the 2024 election.
- If a Republican is elected in a year not listed among the provided options, the market will resolve to "Other." If no Republican is elected by 2040, the market will resolve to "the named outcome."
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will a Republican next be elected President of the United States?
- Manifold Markets prices 2028 at 42% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will a Republican next be elected President of the United States resolve?
- When will a Republican next be elected President of the United States is scheduled to resolve on December 5, 2040.
- How is When will a Republican next be elected President of the United States settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria: