Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2025 100%Leader of 6 outcomes
2025 100%Forecasters
29
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 18, 24, 1:09 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 12:35 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What years will AlphaGeometry win IMO bronze (or higher)?
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Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWill the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?
Manifold MarketsThe legal free-for-all that characterized the first few years of the AI boom will be definitively over in 2026
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
A year resolves yes, if any AI program can get enough points to win at least bronze on the International Mathematics Olympiad of that year.
- The years are resolved completely independent of each other.
- If a neutral party (e.g. from the AIMO prize) judges AI performance in this respect, I will defer to them.
- Otherwise, I will judge myself.
- If I judge, my main requirements are that the AI was written and trained (if applicable) before the IMO, though it need not be released before the IMO.
- The AI should produce a proof that can be checked within a reasonable time by either a human or a proof assistant (e.g. Lean).
