Current community forecast
$1.6–3.2 trillion 76%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
51
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 11, 23, 7:17 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
At what valuation will Anthropic IPO? (M1000 subsidy)
Manifold MarketsAt what valuation will Anthropic IPO? (buckets within $2-3T)
Manifold MarketsAt what valuation will Anthropic IPO? (buckets within $1-2T)
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to the valuation of Anthropic at the end of 2026, according to (in order) 1) the current market capitalization if there was an IPO, 2) the valuation of the most recent priced round or acquisition, if publicly known and <6 months old, or 3) the price of the most recent non-public deals on secondary markets, as determined by my own research and with adjustments for fees (currently: $27b).
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+24.5pt89%
- 2026+59.0pt82%
- September 30, 2026+56.0pt63%
- Total Vol
- $109K
- 24h Vol
- $69.2K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.1pt62%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt21%
- Gemini+1.3pt7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+53.0pt93%
- 2026+53.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026+51.5pt57%
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.25%-7.0pt88%
- Above 2.45%79%
- Above 2.6%+16.0pt56%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.6K
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture50.5%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer27.1%
- No solution by Dec 31, 202710.3%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $37.6K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
- Tencent market share this week
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the valuation of Anthropic in 2026? (M1000 subsidy)?
- Manifold Markets prices $1.6–3.2 trillion at 76% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does What will be the valuation of Anthropic in 2026? (M1000 subsidy) resolve?
- What will be the valuation of Anthropic in 2026? (M1000 subsidy) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is What will be the valuation of Anthropic in 2026? (M1000 subsidy) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the valuation of Anthropic at the end of 2026, according to (in order) 1) the current market capitalization if there was an IPO, 2) the valuation of the most recent priced round or acquisition, if publicly known and <6 months old, or 3) the price of the most recent non-public deals on secondary markets, as determined by my own research and with adjustments for fees (currently: $27b).