What will be the outcome of Annie Altman’s lawsuit against Sam Altman? (Altman v. Altman)
One-OffCrime & Justice3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDismissal 70.9%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 25, 8:25 PM UTCJan 15, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QDczBduZorG4dxZiW/sam-altman-s-sister-annie-altman-claims-sam-has-severely https://x.com/sama/status/1876780763653263770
- https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69520118/altman-v-altman/
- My understanding is that the three options I have added cover all possible outcomes; I will add more if and only if I learn that this is not the case.
Open markets
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+2 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the outcome of Annie Altman’s lawsuit against Sam Altman? (Altman v. Altman)?
- Manifold Markets prices Dismissal at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will be the outcome of Annie Altman’s lawsuit against Sam Altman? (Altman v. Altman) resolve?
- What will be the outcome of Annie Altman’s lawsuit against Sam Altman? (Altman v. Altman) is scheduled to resolve on January 15, 2030.
- How is What will be the outcome of Annie Altman’s lawsuit against Sam Altman? (Altman v. Altman) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QDczBduZorG4dxZiW/sam-altman-s-sister-annie-altman-claims-sam-has-severely https://x.com/sama/status/1876780763653263770