What will be the outcome of Annie Altman’s lawsuit against Sam Altman? (Altman v. Altman)
One-OffCrime & JusticeManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Dismissal (70.9%)
Resolved: Oct 20, 2026, 3:11 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 4:35 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Judgment in favor of plaintiff7.5%
Judgment in favor of defendant20.6%
Dismissal70.9%
Other1.1%
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the New York Times (NYT) achieve a favorable outcome in its copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the outcome of the class-action lawsuit against Elon Musk for his 2024 election lottery?
Manifold MarketsWill Rippling win its lawsuit against Deel?
KalshiWill Brigitte Macron win her defamation lawsuit against Candace Owens?
KalshiWill Kalshi win its lawsuit against New Jersey?
Manifold MarketsRules
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QDczBduZorG4dxZiW/sam-altman-s-sister-annie-altman-claims-sam-has-severely https://x.com/sama/status/1876780763653263770
- https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69520118/altman-v-altman/
- My understanding is that the three options I have added cover all possible outcomes; I will add more if and only if I learn that this is not the case.
