Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
<0.5% 59.7%Leader of 8 outcomes
<0.5% 59.7%Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.9 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleNov 11, 24, 1:26 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
ORA! is an emerging Italian political party, poised to participate in the upcoming Italian elections scheduled for 2027 (unless an earlier election is triggered by a government collapse, definitely not unheard of in Italy).
- What percentage of the vote will they get?
- Brackets are [a, b)
- Also Resolves <0.5% if the party is not present/votable at the election