This market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 PM
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 12:32 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Before 2026-10-010%
Before 2026-10-16100%
Before 2026-11-01100%
Before 2026-11-16100%
Before 2026-12-01100%
Before 2026-12-16100%
Awaiting result
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KalshiRules
This market resolves based on the release of Meta's model currently codenamed 'Watermelon'.
- Any name under which this model is ultimately released — whether 'Watermelon', 'Muse Spark 2', or another name — will count, as long as it is generally understood to be the model currently being developed under that codename.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
