Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 76.6%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleNov 22, 25, 8:34 AM UTCDec 31, 34, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 710 GWdc before January 1st 2036.
- For the purposes of this market:
- “Cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity” means the total nameplate direct‑current (DC) capacity of all grid‑connected solar photovoltaic systems in the United States (utility‑scale, community, commercial & industrial, and residential) that are in service and counted as installed as of the end of calendar year 2035.
- The primary reference for resolution should be the cumulative capacity figures in SEIA / Wood Mackenzie’s U.S. Solar Market Insight (2035 Year‑in‑Review or Q4 report).
- If that report clearly states that year‑end 2035 U.S. solar PV capacity was ≥ 710 GWdc, this market resolves YES.
- If it clearly states that year‑end 2035 U.S. solar PV capacity was < 710 GWdc, this market resolves NO.
