What are the current odds for US solar capacity reaches 500 GWdc before 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 55.2% as of October 8, 2026.

When does US solar capacity reaches 500 GWdc before 2030? resolve?

US solar capacity reaches 500 GWdc before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 55.2%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Stale

Nov 21, 25, 1:10 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 500 GWdc before January 1st 2030.

For the purposes of this market:
“Cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity” refers to the total nameplate direct‑current (DC) capacity of all grid‑connected solar photovoltaic systems in the United States (utility‑scale, community, commercial, and residential) that are in service and counted as installed by the end of calendar year 2029.
The primary reference for resolution should be the cumulative capacity figures in SEIA / Wood Mackenzie’s US Solar Market Insight (Year‑in‑Review or Q4 report).
If that report clearly states that year‑end 2029 U.S. solar PV capacity was ≥ 500 GWdc, this market resolves YES.
If it clearly states it was < 500 GWdc, this market resolves NO.