Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 53.7%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleNov 20, 25, 9:43 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 470 GWdc before January 1st 2030.
- For the purposes of this market:
- “Cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity” means the total nameplate direct‑current (DC) capacity of all grid‑connected solar photovoltaic systems in the United States (utility‑scale, community, commercial, and residential), as of the end of calendar year 2029.
- The primary reference for resolution should be the cumulative capacity figures in SEIA/Wood Mackenzie’s “US Solar Market Insight” (YIR or Q4 report).
- If that report clearly states that year‑end 2029 U.S. solar capacity was ≥ 470 GWdc, the market resolves YES.
- If it clearly states it was < 470 GWdc, the market resolves NO.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030? resolve?
- US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 470 GWdc before January 1st 2030.
