Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 10:32 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 52%
Forecasters
326
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleApr 21, 23, 8:36 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This question will resolve as YES if more than 50% of new cars sold worldwide in the year 2030 are electric.
- The source for determining the percentage of electric cars sold will be the International Energy Agency (IEA) annual report on electric vehicles.
- The report will be released in 2031 and will provide data on the percentage of electric cars sold in 2030.
- This question does not include hybrid cars, only fully electric cars.
- The question does not consider any potential changes in regulations or government policies that may affect the sales of electric cars.
- This question does not consider any potential changes in consumer behavior or technology development that may affect the sales of electric cars.