Current community forecast
Yes 58.1%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jun 26, 26, 6:16 PM UTCOct 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, between June 26, 2026, and October 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT, I successfully convince an individual whom I know or met in person (IRL) to create a Manifold Markets account and follow my profile.
- To resolve YES, the following conditions must be met:
- The individual must be someone I have interacted with in person (not an online-only contact).
- They must register a new Manifold Markets account and follow my profile during the specified timeframe.
- I will post the username of the referred user in the market comments to provide verification.
