Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?
One-OffBusiness & CorporateAdoptionTech3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.2%
Forecasters
72
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Aug 16, 22, 2:03 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves to YES if any year before 2030 sees AT LEAST 50% (unrounded) market share by fully electrified vehicles according to Kelly Blue Book.
- Resolves NO if otherwise (no one year from now until 2030 sees at least 50% market share by fully electrified vehicles).
- "Light vehicles" here means non-commercial light vehicles (e.g., sedans, light trucks, crossovers, etc.).
- HEVs (hybrid electric vehicles) and PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) are EXCLUDED from the EV market share counts; only fully electric vehicles are counted.
- For some context, in Q2 of this year, fully electrified vehicles accounted for 5.6% of all vehicles purchased, compared to 2.7% in Q2 of 2021.
