Current community forecast
Yes 78%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 31 minutes ago
Mar 3, 26, 8:40 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 8:34 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
I am talking to my friend S about whether she should register on Manifold and create a market.
- This market will be resolved with YES if S has created and resolved a market by December 31, 2026 (N/A doesn't count).
- If she has created a market by December 31, 2026 that has not yet been resolved, then the deadline will be extended until resolution, provided the market is still active.
- Disclaimer: I will make an initial purchase of NO shares and will not trade further until the market is resolved.
- S may trade on this market.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above99%
- $69,500 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $844.6K
- 24h Vol
- $817.6K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
- 200-219+45.0pt95%
- 220-239-11.3pt5%
- 40-590%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
- $68,500 or above97%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+5.0pt27.4%
- 200-219+5.0pt22.6%
- 160-179-4.0pt20.6%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+4.0pt88.1%
- OpenAI-1.7pt9.9%
- Google-0.2pt2%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+7.5pt55.9%
- 65-89+13.0pt33.3%
- 90-114+1.9pt5.9%
+7 more outcomes
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will my friend S successfully run a market on manifold??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will my friend S successfully run a market on manifold? resolve?
- Will my friend S successfully run a market on manifold? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will my friend S successfully run a market on manifold? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I am talking to my friend S about whether she should register on Manifold and create a market.