Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.8%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 25, 11:42 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiDantes banned from Twitch this year?
Kalshi"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketRules
My friend is trying to become a Twitch influencer to share his passion on videogames and entertainment.
- He started his twitch channel on Feb 2024.
- Now (may 2025) he has:
- 14 subscribers (84 subscribers-all time peak)
- best streaming in Feb 2025 (21 hours of streaming with, 12 average viewers, 21 peak viewers, +15 followers, 254 h watched)
- He used to do 3 streaming/week for the first 6 month (average 6h/each time or 18h/week).
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+42.0pt76%
- 940 - 950m-42.0pt19.2%
- 960 - 970m+0.2pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $344.8K
- 24h Vol
- $102.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+32.0pt61%
- Jack Barton-2.0pt19%
- Callum Turner-11.0pt16%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+13.1pt32%
- No Bond chosen-7.8pt16%
- Jack Barton+0.9pt14%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+6.0pt28.4%
- Barrett Pfeiffer+2.0pt18.4%
- Drew Campbell-1.0pt12.8%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKET# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- 70-80M+8.8pt63%
- 80-90M+3.0pt35%
- 60-70M-4.6pt1%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIOscar Winner: Best Picture
- The Odyssey52%
- Dune: Part Three13%
- The Black Ball11%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.9M
- 24h Vol
- $32.7K
- Primetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
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- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
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- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
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- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
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- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027? resolve?
- Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: My friend is trying to become a Twitch influencer to share his passion on videogames and entertainment.