Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:23 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast2030 or later 95.6%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleAug 30, 22, 8:43 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This resolves according to the number published by ACEA, like this one: https://www.acea.auto/figure/fuel-types-of-new-passenger-cars-in-eu/
- In 2021 the number for BEV was 9.1%, up from 1% in 2018, 1.9% in 2019 and 5.4% in 2020.
- The EU have decided to ban the sale of new fossil fueled cars from 2035 so presumably that will be the last possible year this can resolve to, but considering how fast BEVs have risen it may well be a majority much earlier.
- UPDATE: The number for 2022 was 12.1%
- The number for 2023 was 14.6%
- The number for 2024 was 13.6%
