UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the bank surcharge be raised to 8% or more?
Crime & JusticeOne-OffBusiness & CorporateRegulationManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No (47.9%)
Resolved: Oct 28, 2026, 2:04 PM
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PolymarketRules
The bank corporation tax surcharge is charged at 3% on banks' taxable profits above a £100 million group allowance.
- The Guardian reported on 15 October 2026 that industry figures expect Healey to raise it back to 8%, and Bloomberg reported that a bank tax rise is among the measures submitted to the OBR.
- YES if the Budget sets the surcharge rate at 8% or more, from any date.
- If the surcharge has more than one rate (for example a higher rate on profits above a higher allowance, or different rates for different banks), YES if any of them is 8% or more.
- A rise to a rate below 8% resolves NO, as do changes only to the allowance, changes to the bank levy, and a new tax on bank profits of a different kind.
- The separate bank taxes market resolves YES on a surcharge rise to any rate, a higher bank levy rate, or a new tax on bank profits or reserves, but not on a change only to the allowance.