Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastx ≥ 250 100%Leader of 14 outcomes
Forecasters
50
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Dec 28, 25, 1:01 PMJan 31, 27, 12:42 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
x ≥ 250099%
Compare venues· x ≥ 250
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall75% match · verified | Medium | 99% | — | $775.7 | $309.9K | 16 minutes ago | Open → |
 PolymarketMost active75% match · linked | Medium | 100% | — | $2K | $31.9K | 16 minutes ago | Open → |
 Futuur75% match · linked | Low | 83% | — | $0 | $1.3K | 16 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 100% | — | — | — | 16 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
5mo
+0.1pt100%
+0.1pt100%
+0.2pt100%
+7 more outcomes
65 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$7.8M
24h Vol$2K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Kalshi
Measles cases in 2026?
1.0 pts5mo
99%
99%
99%
+5 more outcomes
72 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$817.6K
24h Vol$775.7
KALSHIAlso available on Futuur
Measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
5mo
74.1%
15.2%
6.3%
+1 more outcomes
26 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$36.5
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
How many cases of measles will be reported in the US during 2026?
- If the number of cases x is equal to or greater than the number listed in an option as reported by the Johns Hopkins Measles Tracker, it will resolve to YES.
- Otherwise, the option will resolve to NO.
- The market will resolve at the end of January 2027 to allow for lag in reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$238Jul 117d of dataJul 27
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$191Uganda: 100%POLYMARKET
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How many cases of measles will be reported in the US during 2026?
- If the number of cases x is equal to or greater than the number listed in an option as reported by the Johns Hopkins Measles Tracker, it will resolve to YES.
- Otherwise, the option will resolve to NO.
- The market will resolve at the end of January 2027 to allow for lag in reporting.