Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast> 500 97%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 8, 26, 7:55 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the official total number of confirmed measles cases reported in the United States during the calendar year 2027 (January 1, 2027, through December 31, 2027).
- The primary source of truth is the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Measles Cases and Outbreaks page.
- Each option represents a threshold of total confirmed U.S. cases (e.g., > 500 will resolve to YES if the final U.S. measles case count for 2027 is 501 or higher, and NO otherwise).
- Because case counts are subject to retrospective updates and reporting delays, this market will not resolve until the final annual or consolidated provisional totals for 2027 are published by the CDC (expected in early 2028).
- If there is a discrepancy between different CDC tables, the finalized annual surveillance data (such as the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System / MMWR annual summary) or the final consolidated 2027 case count on the main CDC measles page will take precedence.
