Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Nothing (4.1%)
Resolved: Jul 27, 2026, 9:57 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastTrump dies 89.7%-17.2ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 24 days ago
StaleJul 27, 26, 12:20 AMJul 27, 26, 9:57 PM
Trends
89.7%
4.1%
3.4%
2.8%
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This is a dependent multiple-choice market.
- Only one option will resolve to YES, and the remaining options will resolve to NO.
- The market will resolve based on whether any of the following events occur after market creation and before July 28, 2026, at 12:00 AM UTC:
- the named outcome: Resolves to YES if there is consensus global news coverage (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC) confirming the literal, theological Second Coming of Jesus Christ.
- Trump will fart in public: Resolves to YES if there is verifiable, widely reported audio, video, or reputable media confirmation of Donald Trump flatulating in a public setting or during a live broadcast.
