Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastWill be Indian 100%Leader of 20 outcomes
Forecasters
30
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleApr 25, 24, 9:44 PM UTCMay 3, 28, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be the next FIDE Chess World Champion after Gukesh Dommaraju?
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KalshiMotoGP Teams' World Champion
KalshiMotoGP World Champion (2026)
PolymarketRules
Update 2024-18-12 (PST): - "Losing to someone who has been world champion before" refers to losing the world championship title to a person who has previously been world champion (AI summary of creator comment)
- All "lose to" or "be defeated by" etc refer to the competition for the championship itself.
- Similarly, Defend refers to defending the championship.
- Also note that unless otherwise specified, statements such as "will defend his title 3 times" refer to his current holding of the title.
- For example, say he defends well in 2025 and 2026, then loses in 2027, then wins it again in 2028, then defends it again for the 3rd time in 2029.
- That would NOT count as defending 3 times.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-6.0pt63.4%
- 2027-12.5pt29.7%
- 2026-2.5pt6.9%
- Total Vol
- $262.9K
- 24h Vol
- $176.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.3pt57.7%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.9%
- Grok-2.4pt5.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt79.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt11.1%
- Gemini2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $405.1K
- 24h Vol
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Gukesh D's actions as World Champion - independent multi market?
- Manifold Markets prices Will be Indian at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Gukesh D's actions as World Champion - independent multi market resolve?
- Gukesh D's actions as World Champion - independent multi market is scheduled to resolve on May 3, 2028.
- How is Gukesh D's actions as World Champion - independent multi market settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Update 2024-18-12 (PST): - "Losing to someone who has been world champion before" refers to losing the world championship title to a person who has previously been world champion (AI summary of creator comment)