The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.
Health & MedicineAIOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 73.6%
No 73.6%Forecasters
113
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleDec 21, 22, 5:45 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the FDA approve VERVE-102?
KalshiThe FDA will approve a drug for the treatment of senescence (aging) before the end of the decade (before 2030)
Manifold MarketsWill the FDA approve Viagra as a treatment for Alzheimer's before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the FDA approve a fully autonomous robotic surgery device before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 diabetes before 2033?
KalshiRules
The drug company will credit key steps of the discovery or steps in the treatment process to AI/ML techniques.
- The treatment must be approved before 2030 by the FDA for a condition afflicting at least 1 million people at the time, which had no previous cure, rarely goes into remission, and without treatment either significantly shortens lifespan or is considered extremely debilitating.
- Treatments may exist at the time, but this will be a complete cure with an efficacy of >50%.
- The treatment may need to be repeated if the illness recurs, but isn't needed on a continuing basis.
- Examples (not limited to):
- An incurable virus, bacterium, or parasite.
