Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2029 68.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 24, 25, 4:43 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 4:38 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Each year is resolved to the percentage of goals below achieved by AI-rendered games:
- The game is winnable.
- The game must have any win condition - some kind of task that a player must complete to win.
- If the task is just walking to a goal - considered 50% achieved.
- The game has 10+ hours of gameplay.
- Requires (1), will be estimated based on casual playthrough videos and reporting.