Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (97.4%)
Resolved: Oct 25, 2026, 1:47 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 2:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes97.4%
No2.5999999999999943%
Won
Lost
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KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if there exists a publicly available, usable by hobbyists, softmod for the Nintendo Switch 2 before market close.
- An unreleased or one-off hack doesn't count.
- Any OS version, game, etc counts as long as it was ever publicly available at some point.
- "soft" - Does not require nontrivial disassembly of the console, does not require specialist tools or devices (including flashcarts), and does not require permanent physical alterations to the console.
- For example, something like the fusee-gelee vulnerability would count because it can be accomplished without disassembly, with everyday hardware (you can use a paperclip or something instead of a jig), and does not require a permanent hardware modification.
- "mod" - Must be able to run nontrivial homebrew code.
