Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59.5%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleFeb 3, 26, 11:18 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which specific games from other platforms will be announced for Nintendo Switch 2 before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these series will EVER have games on Nintendo Switch 2?
Manifold MarketsHow many units in total will the Nintendo Switch 2 have sold by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will production of all Nintendo Switch 1 models end in Japan?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if there exists a publicly available, usable by hobbyists, softmod for the Nintendo Switch 2 before market close.
- An unreleased or one-off hack doesn't count.
- Any OS version, game, etc counts as long as it was ever publicly available at some point.
- "soft" - Does not require nontrivial disassembly of the console, does not require specialist tools or devices (including flashcarts), and does not require permanent physical alterations to the console.
- For example, something like the fusee-gelee vulnerability would count because it can be accomplished without disassembly, with everyday hardware (you can use a paperclip or something instead of a jig), and does not require a permanent hardware modification.
- "mod" - Must be able to run nontrivial homebrew code.
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
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- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be softmodded before 2035? [read description]?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be softmodded before 2035? [read description] resolve?
- Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be softmodded before 2035? [read description] is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.
- How is Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be softmodded before 2035? [read description] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if there exists a publicly available, usable by hobbyists, softmod for the Nintendo Switch 2 before market close.