Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2027 74.1%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 24, 9:19 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
If you don't want to read the full description, the short version is this: The probability of each time category represents the percentage of people that will be worse at problem-solving than an AI that doesn't use extreme amounts of energy.
- Codeforces contests will be used to measure the performance.
- Competitive Programming and AI
- AIs as of 2024 are good at retrieving previously discovered knowledge, they lack however the ability to navigate complex state spaces to arrive at new solutions.
- CP problems provide a good framework for testing them in this area, as we can easily test their solutions with a computation.
- As such, their rating in Codeforces will also reflect to some extent their ability to solve complex problems relative to other humans.