Retrocausal interpretation of quantum mechanics consensus view by EOY2040?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Retrocausal interpretation of quantum mechanics consensus view by EOY2040??

Manifold Markets prices No at 86.8% as of October 29, 2026.

When does Retrocausal interpretation of quantum mechanics consensus view by EOY2040? resolve?

Retrocausal interpretation of quantum mechanics consensus view by EOY2040? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2040.

How is Retrocausal interpretation of quantum mechanics consensus view by EOY2040? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Retrocausal interpretations of quantum mechanics ( https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qm-retrocausality/ ) hold that not only does the preparation of a system influence what happens at the point of measurement but the measurement of a system influences what happens at the point of preparation.

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KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

• Before Jan 20, 202923.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2028+2.0pt15.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2027-0.1pt4.8%

+4 more outcomes

Total Vol

$37.6M

24h Vol

$121.1K

POLYMARKET

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

• December 31-0.5pt3%
• October 31-0.3pt0%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$75.6M

24h Vol

$97.9K

POLYMARKET

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 29, 2026?

• 6.1 or more+75.5pt95.2%
• 5.3 to 5.4-14.6pt1%
• 5.5 to 5.6-17.0pt1%

+3 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

• 1+0.5pt90%
• 2-1.0pt10%
• 30%

+3 more outcomes

KALSHI

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

• Yes-4.7pt73.9%
• No26.1%

Total Vol

$443.4K

24h Vol

$2.2K

POLYMARKET

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

• No-2.0pt95%
• Yes+2.0pt5%

Total Vol

$334.7K

24h Vol

$1.9K

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