Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.1%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJun 22, 25, 3:26 PM UTCJun 22, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a dirty bomb be used by 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiRules
A "dirty bomb" is a dispersal mechanism like a conventional explosive attached to a radioactive material, intended to render an affected area undesirable, impassible, or uninhabitable.
- Nuclear explosions (those relying on nuclear fission or fusion for their energy) do not count.
- Intended nuclear devices that malfunction do not count, even if they have the same effect as a dirty bomb.
- This question resolves NO in four years if no dirty bomb detonates anywhere in the world.
- This question resolves YES based on the report of a newspaper AND a reputable scientific organization.
- I do not expect that to be a subjective criterion, but if it appears that subjective resolution is required I will sell any shares at current market value a full day before resolving this market.
