Current community forecast
Before 2026-12-01 80.8%+30.8ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+30.8 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 9, 26, 5:40 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by which date?
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Manifold MarketsWill Meta release Llama 5 this year?
KalshiWill OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Meta release a smartwatch in 2026?
Manifold MarketsGrand Theft Auto VI: Release date
KalshiRules
The '+' means any version at or above 1.4 counts: if Meta skips 1.4 and releases Muse Spark 1.5 or Muse Spark 2, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Muse Spark 1.4, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.1pt58%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt21%
- Grok+0.6pt8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
- 24h Vol
- $101.3K
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+7.5pt76%
- 2026+27.5pt48%
- September 30, 2026+10.0pt19%
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+27.0pt99%
- Video+27.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.0pt69.7%
- Moonshot-1.1pt25.3%
- Z.ai+1.8pt3%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.5pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $52.5K
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- OpenAI market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date?
- Manifold Markets prices Before 2026-12-01 at 81% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date resolve?
- Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026.
- How is Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The '+' means any version at or above 1.4 counts: if Meta skips 1.4 and releases Muse Spark 1.5 or Muse Spark 2, that still counts for the purpose of this market.