PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
October 31 75.5%-14.0ptVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.9K
Liquidity
$3.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
23.0% / 25.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 4, 26, 2:29 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,000 or above99%
- $74,750 or above99%
- $72,000 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $559.9K
- 24h Vol
- $543.6K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+21.0pt59.4%
- 140-159+15.3pt24.8%
- 180-199-24.0pt13.9%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above98%
- $73,000 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+5.0pt74.3%
- Before March 202716.8%
- Before 20273.5%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.8M
POLYMARKETWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- October 31+5.7pt99%
- December 31+2.7pt99%
- September 15-8.9pt1%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-1.0pt88%
- OpenAI+0.7pt9%
- Google+0.8pt3%
+18 more outcomes
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- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- BTC 15 min · $77,848.79 target
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 10, 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
- BTC price range on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Will Russia capture Bilytske by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by which date??
- Polymarket prices October 31 at 76% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by which date? resolve?
- Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by which date? is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2026.
- How is Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).