Multi-market for Total Fertility Rate in each country in 2050 among HS grad women (x25)
EconomyOne-OffManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastEgypt 59%Leader of 25 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleOct 29, 23, 5:54 PM UTCJan 1, 51, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Each market should be the name of a country.
- Resolves PROB to TFR * 25.
- If the named country doesn't exist in 2050, it resolves N/A and the successor country resolves PROB.
- Replacement = 2.1 TFR = 52.5% Only women with at least the equivalent of a high school diploma are counted, so countries can't goodhart this by importing a religious fundamentalist underclass
- I started by listing the top 25 countries by total GDP (PPP), but anyone can add addititional countries.
- [edit: if a country has no stats breaking down TFR by educational attainment, it resolves N/A]
