Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64.2%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Jan 2, 26, 7:42 AM UTCJan 8, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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PolymarketRules
This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
- It will resolve according to the judgement of the authors.
- If they don't publish a retrospective by the end of February, it will resolve according to my judgement.