Current community forecast
Yes 84.4%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleDec 28, 25, 11:29 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2028
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRules
All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2026".
- For the 2025 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
- You can find all the markets under the tag [2026 Forbes AI predictions].
- Note that I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2026's predictions, even if I or others disagree with his decision.
- I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
- Description of this prediction from the article:
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does 6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips. resolve?
- 6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips. is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is 6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips. settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2026".