Current community forecast
Yes 64.3%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 5, 26, 3:01 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2028
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2027
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic release Mythos?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic release Opus 6?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC, Anthropic officially releases or deploys an in-house, custom-designed silicon chip (developed by Anthropic's internal silicon/hardware team) to train or run its Claude AI models.
- "Release or deploy" is defined as any of the following:
- Anthropic publicly announces that it is actively using its proprietary, custom-designed chips for training or running Claude in production.
- Anthropic or its manufacturing partner officially announces the successful tape-out, shipping, or deployment of the custom silicon designed by Anthropic's in-house team.
- Exceptions & Clarifications:
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2030?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2030 resolve?
- Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2030 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2030 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria